Results so far
Live numbers from 2026 Founding Beta, covering the one participant in the research. Every figure comes straight from the database and says how many people or bets it is based on. Anything based on fewer than 10 people or bets is held back until there is enough data to mean something.
Updated Oct 14, 2026, 2:32 AM UTC. Method version igs-methods-v1. How we measure
Where everyone stands
Bettors ahead, even and behind
Net result of settled bets, among participants with at least one settled bet.
Not enough data yet: 0 bettors with settled bets, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
- Median net result
- —
- Credits, settled bets
- Average net result
- —
- Pulled around by big winners
- Median return on stakes
- —
- Out of credits
- —
- Less than 1 credit left
Betting versus not betting
Bettors now below their starting 500
—
Of 0 bettors with settled bets. Not betting would have kept all 500.
Who is in the experiment
Everyone joins to bet. Some never place a bet, and some stop.
- Betting
- 0
- Never bet
- 1
- Stopped
- 0
Show the numbers
| Group | People |
|---|---|
| Betting | 0 |
| Joined, never bet | 1 |
| Stopped (no bet in 14 days) | 0 |
Skill or luck?
Against a random bettor
Every real bet, compared with picking sides at random at the exact same prices and stakes.
Not enough data yet: 0 settled bets, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Against the closing line
Average edge of each pick (a single, or one leg of a parlay) versus the final, margin-free price at the same line. Positive means beating the market.
Not enough data yet: 0 picks, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Which bets lose fastest
Return on stakes by bet type
Not enough data yet: 0 settled bets, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Return on stakes by league
Singles only.
Not enough data yet: 0 settled singles, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Does experience or volume help?
By betting experience
From the optional questionnaire. Median return on stakes.
Not enough data yet: 0 bettors who answered, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
By number of settled bets
Median return on stakes. More bets means luck matters less.
Not enough data yet: 0 bettors, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Confidence versus reality
How sure people said they were, and how often they won
Singles where the bettor answered “How sure are you?”. Dots below the diagonal mean more confidence than results.
Not enough data yet: 0 answered singles at any one confidence level, and we only publish figures based on at least 10. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Over time
Share of bettors ahead, day by day
Among bettors with at least one settled bet by that day, to the nearest whole percent.
Not enough data yet: the chart starts once there are two days with at least 10 bettors with settled bets. This fills in as the experiment runs.
Definitions
- Settled bet:
- a bet that won, lost or pushed. Void bets are left out.
- Return on stakes:
- net result divided by the total staked on settled bets.
- Random bettor:
- the exact expected result of picking a side at random, at the same prices and stakes as each real bet. A random combination that could have paid more than the maximum payout would have been refused, so it keeps its stake.
- Closing line:
- the last price before kickoff from the same book, with the bookmaker’s margin removed. Bets whose line moved are left out.
Full definitions, hypotheses and limitations are in the methodology.